BY N PRASHNT CHOWDARY
28 March 2026
In wartime, truth is so precious that she should always be attended by a bodyguard of lies
BY Winston Churchill
Power is the ultimate aphrodisiac
By Henry Kissinger
When will the war stop?
Few months back when I am research for the article on the direction of India economy, I found crude is the Achilles heel of Indian economy (please refer 5th point in https://3arc.in/crash-alert-nifty- 18000/). Latter as we all know the war started and its aftereffects.
As the crisis is unfolding world is starting to see the second and third order effects of the crude oil prices and starting to wonder when and how this war is going to end. Before going to when and how we should also get some clarity on why this started?
To answer why we should look at hegemonic power games. As the popular narrative goes this war is between Iran and Israel and latter USA has joined to curtail the Iran from making the N bomb. But the truth of the matter is, it is a strategic battle between US and China. Israel and Iran are just proxies. When we connect the dots we can understand that to curtail China and bring to the negotiation table USA has taken this step to involve in this war because 90 percentage of the oil of Iran is brought by China and 46 percentage of government revenues of Iran are form China and the kidnap of Venezuela president is all about to stop the rise of China. It’s all about power polities. And the second most important thing is to strengthen the dollar index; in the last few years every county is
looking for alternatives to dollar and gold has come to limelight. To arm-twist the China, USA as energy exporting county has to control the arteries of the world oil trade, so it gets in to this war to control the Strait of Hormuz where 40 percentage of oil flows through it with the help of Israel where it has its own objectives to achieve its greater Israels project. The first shot is a decision; the last shot is an uncontrollable consequence.
As a market observer I am more interested in when this is going to end, so that we can take a decision on when to buy the stocks. As I observe the latest price action of the crude oil, it has one more top to reach and latter on it goes into consolidation mode ranging from 90 to 115 range. So, we can say that this war will reach its peak in few week time, not a prolonged battel for years together at present. We can apply Theory of Reflexivity to the present war situation and conclude that the war stops when the markets panics.
Just a scratch, not a wound
As the Indian economy is concerned regarding this war there are three aspects to be taken into consideration growth, inflation and currency adjustments. As the growth is concern I think the first quarter of this financial year will be slow and over all India growth story will be around 6 percentage on a year basis and on inflation front it will push by 1 to 2 percentage points and on currency adjustment the math is very difficult to say, but it cannot depreciate more than 5 percentage points because India fiscal deficit is low, base inflation of last year is very low and RBI is having a good reserves buffer. After all the dust clears the one parameter where I am confidence in the Indian economy is on loan growth which has already picked up.
There is a big difference between wishful thinking and a forecast. For this war to stop, I am praying that my wishful thinking and my forecast become one and the same.
